The Bhishma Plate Div-III

This is an attempt to read the race card and find out the likely winner. This being the Class IV race let me analyse the horses from bottom up one by one.

• LA MELL- This is four year old maiden with 3 career runs two of which in Class V. Since it is rated 21 belongs to lower class. As such ignored here.
• BROWN PANTHER - this 5yo has won only once in her 25 career run and that too in lower class. Cannot be fancied here.
• SHINING BAY - This lower class winner from Rajesh Narredu Yard opting to run in this class for after 14 3/4 length defeat in Lower class is hoping a great deal. Ignored here.
• SCORCHING - This 4yo maiden after a brides maid effort in the lower class in her last run should look to run out of board so that to get weight reduction and place money in one of her future runs in lower class. In the present competition should be ignored.
• MYSTICAL SHADOW - A 17 1/2 LENGTH BEHIND THE WINNER in previous start is enough disincentive to throw this horse out of contention
• SWEET ANGEL - this long in tooth mare who has just 2 wins in her 44 career starts is looking for demotion for a go in lower class perhaps in Mysore. Not here.
• QUEENS SOLITAIRE - First career start. Must have been having some problem. Who would wager on it?
• GOOD WILL WARRIOR - This 4yo maiden gelding is running after a gap of nearly 6 months. Eventhough you will find this horse in the list of my Follow Horses he is obviously short in racing fitness and therefore will stake his claim after a run or two. Possibly on demotion after knocking off a 3 or four points in rating and also gaining fitness in the process.
• ZERMATT  - a case similar to Sweet Angel- looking for demotion & age group. Not here.
• TRAPEZOID - Winner of the lower class in his previous start at longer odds do not have the capability to put it across a more accomplished runner in this set. May run 2nd or 3rd. 
• PASSION FLORA - I would have brushed aside the claims of this filly on first look if it was not for a couple of reasons. First the negatives. in Race no 198 winter season on Feb 21 the race report is as follows "Jockey D. Gnaneshwar, the rider of PASSION FLORA, was questioned regarding the disappointing performance of PASSION FLORA. He stated that he was instructed to sit 3^rd or 4^th position then give her day light in the straight which he did, but she gave nothing under his riding and shifted in near 100 Metres under the whip then raced in a crab like manner.It was reported after the 3^rd race at 3.35 p.m that PASSION FLORA (D. Gnaneshwar) burst its blood vessels (Endoscopy Grade III). Trainer Mr. Narayana Gowda V was informed that he must produce a Fitness Certificate from the Club’s Veterinary Officer before accepting with it again."  Now the positives. The trainer it seems has given the filly good rest and has put on light training. The last run whe she came second to Volcano was a good one and the fact that Volcano has gone on to win again in higher class has made this filly's stock a touch too good in this class. Combined to this the fact that the trainer has chosen a D-III race where he will meet weaker set of horses by accepting another horse from his stable in D-II shows the intentions of the connections to go for the win. Subject to BV holding this horse is a sureshot winner. I would suggest a bet on this horse if the odds are above 3/2.