Mysore  20-10-2017

Race #102 -The Bottolonda Trophy D-2

Aerospeed, Surf Romance, Star Line, Halfsies & Perfectgoldenera are the contenders. Other runners not considered as they are either too backward or riders being weak.

Perfectgoldenera last start winner in lower class has to show further improvement to win this class. May at best place.

Aerospeed is a same class winner who placed second in her last start and hence comes into consideration but she will be carrying an additional impost of 5Kgs as compared to her last start is going to put her in a great disadvantage in this race.

Halfsies belonging to the same stable as that of Surf Romance is having his first career start and should treat this run as an educative one on race track and this ace rider is assigned for feed back in my opinion. Not here.

Surf Romance looks on the face of it is having all the credentials except in experience. He finished 3^rd a 7 lengths behind winner in his last start in June, is now out to race track after 4 months with the best jockey to guide his fortunes. The rider has worked the horse in morning workouts and the race apparently in his grasp. Is a contender.

Star Line has been a disappointment so far. She has run alongside  of several good horses and was rated 30 for the first time and that was her undoing. Was seen making her handicap debut in class 3 (30-50 in Bangalore). She had her best chance when she fell short by a short head to Raw Gold one start before her last. She jumped out slow in her last start jeopardizing her chances. Now well rested finds herself in a relatively weak set and is a contender.

In Final analysis, my vote goes to Star Line who has experience and credentials to win this class 4 race if she takes a level break from the gates. Surf Romance may find the weight of expectations and lack of experience a dampener to his efforts.

Good Luck.

The Rosmini Plate Div-2

Class 4 / Horses Rated 20 to 46-1200M

            This is class IV race open class with horses of all ages competing. Being a D2 race the contenders are either 3YO or a 4YO.

As per the divisioning rules at RWITC out of the 27 horses accepted to run this race the forst 13 horses will be first allocated to run in D1 & the remaining 12 (horse #  14 to 27 in handicaps) will be allocated to D2. However if there are two horses of the same trainer or owners are there then the higher rated of the two will remain in D1 & lower rated relegated to D2. Some trainers use this facility wisely by getting their good horses competing in D2and allowing them to compete with relatively inferior set of horses which improves their chances of winning the race a great deal.

If you look at the present card first 4 horses have been assigned to run in D2 and not in D1 even though they should be in D1 strictly as per ratings. It is clear that the trainers have done this with some design. If we can decipher their design we have found the winner.

LADY IN RED:  This 4YO filly has won his 3^rd career start in a class 4 race at Mumbai to clear maiden status at 1:12.33 at a rating of 29. Having been penalized 12 points for that victory has opted to run in the same class even though she is eligible to run in 40-66 class. On both occasions she was found wanting as she was a same class winner (SCW). She cannot be ruled out here but being an SCW she may find it a tad difficult.

MISS MONEYPENNY: This is a 3YO filly who has won her career first start in 1000M race at 59.45, though not entirely expected. Thereafter she ran ran in 3 terms races (1 G3 race), and has competed with classy horses like Ruffina, Oracle, Bottega Louie etc. With decent preparations on the trial track has got the best credentials.

ROMANTIC WARRIOR: is a maiden 4YO gelding whose only good credential was last start 3^rd, 1 ¼ length adrift the winner. But that was in January 2017 and has not had a race run for nearly 8 months now. His recent morning workouts is not inspiring and in my opinion should use this race as a rehearsal for a future victory.

COSA NOSTRA:  is a maiden 3YO filly who has had one career start at Mumbai. She was withdrawn in her last start duly to unruly behavior at the gates and as such like her stable mate Romatic Warrior is here for a race run rather than any other motive.

In the final analysis I find the credentials of MISS MONEYPENNY very appealing and therefore nominate her to win this race.

Good Luck!

Continuing from my earlier posts on HT.

The so called Champion Jockeys

There have been many a comment in this space about the deteriorating performance of champion Jockeys of last season, namely, SurajNarredu& S. John. Some even attributing “deviousness” on the part of the Jockeys and connections. Whatever it is it is plain that these top rung Jockeys, Suraj, John, A. Imran Khan, Srinath, Alford, Rajendra, even I Chisty have seem to have lost focus on their fitness regime. Hence, they have lost the expected “Spark” in their riding.  Suraj is Weighing close to 55kgs. S.John is well over 55 kgs and I heard an announcement by BTC on 4/3/12 that A. Imran Khan is weighing 56.5 Kgs and is over weight on his mount by ½ kg. I Chisty once considered a safe and reliable Jockey on bottom weights is now weighs around 52 Kgs. Less said the better about Srinath, C. Rajendra& C. Alford etc.

No wonder Trevors & Sandeshes who weigh around 48 kgs rule the turf. With increase in body weight the Jockey loses the suppleness which is an important factor to give a good and effective ride. With more weight the body develops stiffness and the result is the lack of quality rides. I remember the great Aslam Kader ( who was fondly nick named AK 47 for his thunderous finishes and his low body weight), and PesiShroff made every effort to keep their physic in top shape and their body weight under check.

Are our present day Jockeys more licentious than their peers of the earlier generation when it comes to commitment ?

Comments please.

This piece of write up is relevant even today. Only the actors are different!

Dear readers I am posting some of my posts I made in Indiarace Horsetalk while I was very active there. Some of the posts are relevant even today. Hope some of the readers get some insight.

       The following is a post by one SUN and my reply:
sun said ...   1/10/2012 9:41:49 AM 

Dear All,
Now that we have had the benefit of so many exchanges on PNR etc let me state the problem as follows.
Assumptions 1) Races are run in a competetive spirit and there is not much of pulling of horses to drastically influence the Time Clocked for a race.In other words in majority of cases Average Times are turned out and among these races there are few races which standout in the Time turned out and horses of those races present us good bets.
2)Handicapper has to rely on this very same data in Revising the Ratings and cannot be whimsical in raising ratings abnormally in isolation of horses performance
Having made these assumptions let us look at the variables on the Time Clocked.
1.Weight carried by the horse
2.Distance of the race.
3.Class of race Becomes important because same hose in higher class carries lower weight resulting in a better time in higher class.
4.PNR which has influence on the time clocked.
Now if we can find empirical values to normalise the above varianles to come to a common platform then we can spot winners more easily.I have been trying various formulae in working out this with limited success.
My interaction with knowledgeable people like chanakya,drcheenu,sksagar,vamanan, glasgow prince etc has given me some encouragement.All these people being professionals to the core have also opined that such attempt is too theoretical and success is a mirage.In spite of this I am continuing my search for this.
Now what is resolved to a reasonable degree is Adjustment of Time due to change in Weight.On others I invite your feedback,however caustic it may be.
Thanks.

My Reply....

Dear Sun,

This is with reference to your post -1/10/2012 9:41:49 AM 

I am sorry for the belated response. I am not getting sufficient spare time to keep up with the momentum with which this discussion seems to be going.

I am giving below the raw timings clocked by Sirono & Optimus Prime during Bangalore Summer Season 2011 for 1200M races.

SIRONO 52.5 Kg  SURAJ NARREDU 1:12:28 PNR(2.9) 80 &above (Seasons best timing)

SIRONO 55 Kg  P S CHOUHAN  1:12:55 PNR(2.6) Terms 4 Y O & OVER

SIRONO 57 Kg PS CHOUHAN   1:12:76 PNR (3.5) 60-85

Now how do you analyse this?

OPTIMUS PRIME 54 Kg SURAJ NARREDU 1:12:49 PNR (3.6) 80 & ABOVE (2^ND BEST TIME)

OPTIMUS PRIME 60 Kg S JOHN   1:12:76 PNR (3.0) 80 & ABOVE

OPTIMUS PRIME 55.5 Kg S JOHN 1:13:14 PNR (2.9) 80 & ABOVE

From the above data you know that both Sirono&Optimus Prime are capable of clocking a time of around 1:12:5 for a 1200 M race. Once you keep this in mind the PNR value or the Wt. assigned are of little relevance. I have normalized the time in a jiffy – no complex calculations.

I only look in a race card whether there is another animal which is capable to clock similar or better time when either of the above horses is accepted. Capable is the operative word here because it reflects the potential. Then I consider whether the horses in question have current form and in good condition.And finally look for the INTENT from the connections.

If a race card is studied this way you can zero in on the real contenders & get to the winner easily. This is one type of handicapping method with the aid of “Timings Clocked” as the main parameter. There are some other methods also (elimination method is another), which independently or in conjunction with one another, can help you to identify the winner.

If you ask me I am in agreement with Cruise that the pace of the race determines the timing clocked. I may add that the Class or category in which the horse is running mostly determines the pace. That’s why you will find that the timings clocked in higher classes are always better than the lower classes. Normally I rate the horses as to which class it belongs based on the timings they clock, especially those 3yo s which run in Maiden races.

The Field Marshall Sam Manekshaw Memorial Trophy

Class 3 / Horses Rated 40 to 66 (1600M).

This is a more interesting race, from study point of view, than the Eves Champions Trophy of the 8 races scheduled for today, 13.08.2017. I am going to express my thought process below as I read the race card of this race. I may not be correct at the conclusion but I imagine that it should provide the readers some insight.

IN MY DREAM: Rated at 61,this filly could not win her First career start, for that matter was bridesmaid in first 3 career starts, and finished 3^rd in her 4^th start before shedding maiden status against class 3 opposition in her 5^th start. She had been beaten in her career by more illustrious peers, such as Germanicus, Bold March, Accolade & Temerity. You will agree In My Dream could not have beaten them as a maiden. After her maiden win win she was pitched in Fillies Trials where she finished 5^th to Mrs Patmore. It seems she has suffered a minor set back and as was not seen racing thereafter. I am assuming she has been nursed back to sufficient fitness as evidenced by her close 3^rd in a mock race. She is certainly a contender even though she is same class winner (SCW).

NELSON BLOOD: is a last start winner of this class. This gelding justified my faith by winning his first start in Pune in class 3. He was not a first start winner and cleared his maiden status in his 4^th start in Lower class (Class 4).Mile is his forte and as such won pillar to post very nicely indeed. Normally an SCW is a discard in my method of handicapping. But if you see NB had won at a rating of 46 and is penalized just 10 points for that victory which makes him ineligible to compete in class 2 at 56 rating. He is a contender even though he is running within 2 weeks of his previous start.

VOLANTIS: This filly has cleared her maiden status in only her 7^th start and in the assessment of the trainer is a runner with potential to win long distance races. She is a same class winner and has had a good preparation with a mock race & regular morning work outs. She is competing here because she is rated in this class like Nelsons Blood. My take is she would use this race as a preparatory gallop for some other longer distance race in future. Though cannot rule out entirely.

GLORIOUS EYES: This filly is a disappointment for me since I expected her to do well after she won her career first start and competed in a grade 3 race in her first season. She struggled to get her next victory in class 4, and was on board in her last 3 start in this class. I consider that she needs a much inferior company to register he next win. Not here.

TIMELESS: is the lone 3YO contender in this class 3 set. Registered his victory in his first start as a rank outsider (11/1odds), and ran on second & 3^rd in his two subsequent starts to the well performed 3YOs, Tutankhamun & Ruffina. As a result was installed an favourite in his last start in which he performed well below par in that he came 7^th out of 7 horses. He is being prepared meticulously in morning work and looks like a contender here. But it has been experience that whenever there is single 3YO in class 3 it loses more often than not.

JAGER BOMB: I don’t think I need to discuss much about this long in tooth gelding who is here either to make up the card or to aid somehow his stable mate. Discarded.

In the final analysis I am nominating IN MY DREAM as my pick since I feel she is far more classy than the other runners in this field.

Best of luck.

Bangalore Selections 10-08-2017

Race 1:  The highest rated 3YO maiden Cantabria has to take this race with ease.

Race 2:   Even though a 3YO in 2000M for the first time is suspect, I think Implicit Trust can have the race in view of the poor competition. Brave Girl might look like a threat but for her also this is first time running this distance. Love Is Life is the real danger though.

Race 3:  Arizona has no business to lose this race.

Race 4:   JUSTICE ANGEL stands tall in this race. My days best.

Race 5:  Malana may find her winning shoes here with distance now dropped to 1100M.

Race 6: It could be an end of a long winless wait for Red Admiral.

Race 7:  Talldega though resuming after a lay off gets bits and pieces opposition. Either aged or those with vet issues. May oblige. 

Best of luck!

The Rajah S. R. K. Ranga Row Memorial Cup

Class 2 / Horses Rated 45 to 65- 1400M

• GYPSY: is a 4YO colt has already won this class by beating good horses like Arvak, Siobahn, Antananiravo etc, who have later registered victory.But in my handicapping method I generally discard same class winner(SCW) unless I have strong reasons to consider. I also think Gypsy finds 1400M a little stiff and with Nazerul Alam declared to ride his chances are dim here.
•  JUSTICE ANGEL: This career first start winner was highly thought of by the connections initially and was competing in graded races matching strides with the likes of Serjeant At Arms , Whomakestherules etc. Has had a mild set back and was shifted stables to Imtiaz Khan Khan who has patiently nursed her back to peak fitness which was evident when she steamrolled the opposition in her last start albeit in lower class. She looked a picture in the paddock when paraded last. Has excellent chance here.
• TOPAZ: is a 5YO horse had come up through the handicap route,has had a tough time to clear the class 3 but found a friendly bunch in this class to register victory. SCW & 5Yo hence discared.
• BONFIRE: This 5YO mare has won higher clss and been in and out races since then. In her last start finished 9 ¾ lengths behind winner. Cant’t fancy here.
• BURNISHED GOLD:  has had uninspiring runs in her last 4 starts. Cannot expect her to improve with this rider. Ignored.
• AMAZING REDD: this long in tooth competitor has to find more friendly set to come victorious. Not here.
• EMIDIO: has two career wins and his last victory was in class 4. Has not won the lower class and as such is not considered here.
• ALEXANDRITE:  Age and ability is against mare. She finds Class 2 a tough proposition and is on a weight reduction mission to try a coup in lower class later. Perhaps at Mysore in age group race. Not my fancy here.
• RACING FIRE: this 4YO gelding is a winner of this class (SCW), and finished at the back end of the field in her last start. Ignored.
• REAL STEEL: Age, form, fitness intent everything is amiss with this gelding.
• MOON DANCER: this rig is likely to be installed as a favourite in this race mainly on account of the stable, ownership and trainers credentials and also being the only 3YO in the field. For me these are all misplaced credentials. Has not done anything remarkable in his career for such support in Class 2. Her last start was pathetic, finishing 26 lengths behind winner even though in graded company. His earlier two victories came in Hyderabad where he was with a different trainer and inferior company. He was not even a career first start winner. I will be surprised if he wins. Good luck to all who back him.
• WAR ENVOY: as a favourite finished 7 lengths behind Racing Fire in his last start which was 5months ago and is resuming after a break. Though his morning work appears alright would be difficult to register a win after the long break. Should use this race to regain race fitness, in my opinion.

         So in the final analysis Justice Angel stands tall in this card and should score an encore, though I normally don't encourage betting on a runner who is having its first run in this class  I recommend that we can make that odd exception to that rule today.

Good Luck.

The Capricorn Stud Plate
Class 3 / Horses Rated 30 to 50  (1600M)

General Observations:

• In a Class 3 open class race (as opposed to age group), as per my pattern handicapping rule 3YO horses is the most likely winner. 4YO winning this class is an exception. 5YO & above winning is highly unlikely. This is for Bangalore center and not to be confused with some other centers.
•  During Bangalore summer season I consider the First career start winners at Bangalore getting a class 3 rating superior to those clear their maiden status in 2^nd or subsequent start & those from other centers
•  I also always consider the first time ratings assigned by the handicapper as an index in determining the superiority of the horses
• I generally discard those who are entering this class by winning the lower class i.e class 4.   

With this preamble let me try unravel the mystery of finding the winner of this race.

            Of the 9 horses declared to run this race 6 horses are 3YOs & 3 horses 4YOs. Discounting the chances of 4 YOs let us consider the chances of the remaining 6 horses one by one.

KAMBAKU: cleared maiden status in in his 5^th career start in a plate race over 1400M. Was installed favourite in his first career start over 1100M (which is very sharp for this Win Legend-Star Of The Crop progeny), and was upstaged by the 20/1 shot Apache Sunrise. Next 4 starts found Tutankhamun, Apache Sunrise(again) and Mauritiana too good and therefore found victory elusive. At the beginning of the fresh season he found himself rated at 39 and found a mediocre set to register his victory. In his next start he was guided by Vinod Shinde ( a no job rider, in my opinion) to third position in a terms trophy race won by Lady In Lace (rated 62). This has resulted in the handicapper slapping a penalty of 10 points which has resulted in a heavy impost of 60Kgs in this race otherwise would have been carrying only 55Kgs. Contender.

ULTIMATE MAGIC: could not clear her maiden status in her 3 career starts and was beaten by Kambaku by over 9 lengths in her 3^rd start. Got rated at 29 for the first time and won a class 4 race in her last start. Got penalized 16 points for that 5 ½ lengths victory and should find very difficult here in spite of the ace rider guiding her fortunes.

DR.LOGAN: has had a belated debut in this season, was given an educative run in his first start and was beaten by unfancied Pinyada who is also in the fray in this race. He won his second start quite creditably though the field is not that great but surprisingly rated highly by the handicapper and rated 40 first time for that effort! Has scope for further improvement with same rider declared to ride him. Contender.

PANCHOVILLA: is an outstation raider, who seem to have been sent to Bangalore for summering and experience. Cleared maiden status in his 5^th start at home center Kolkota. Though rated at 41 for the first time (since he competed in Graded races) could not win a class 3 race earlier in the season when lost to Vallee Sceptre (rated 40). May find it tough here, in my opinion. I will be surprised if he wins.

PINYADA: Though a winner over DR.Logan, another contender, in his second lifetime start, was with withdrawn in his latest declared start due to lameness on left hind limb. Rated at 35 do not possess enough ability, in my assessment, even with assistance from Sandesh in the saddle.

            In the final analysis of the two contenders Kambaku & Dr.Logan, my vote goes to Kambaku who, even though carrying an heavier impost, has better experience having matched strides with some of the good type of horses like Tutankahamun, Mauritiana, Lady In Lace & Apache Sunrise. Dr.Logan though could have improved do not possess the matching experience.

            I have given my reading of the race. Each one has the liberty to make his choice.

Good luck.

The Dr S R Captain Trophy

Horses Rated 60 to 86

4th race in 28/07/2017 Pune race card.

General Observations:

1. As a pattern handicapping rule in an open class 2 race normally 4yo horses will win. Aged horses (5&6YO) winning is an exception. During the previous Pune season out of 15 races in 60-86 only one race was won by a 5YO. Remaining 14 races were won by 4YOs.
2. Normally I consider horses rated between 67 & 79 which I call Pucca class. The point is horses rated 60-66 & 80-86 belong to overlapping class i.e lower class or higher class. Though this is not a rule generally so. Horses in 60-66 band do at times win races provided they had a run benefit in the class 2.
3. I generally discard those horses which are making a call in the class for the first time unless they are exceptionally good. say classy animals.
4. With this preamble let me consider the card with an aim to pick the likely winner.

There are 10 horses declared to run this race of which only 4 of them are 4YOs. Horse#1, 3,7 & 9. Horse #2, 4, 5, 6 & 10 are aged horses 6YO & above and I am straight away discarding. Horse # 6 is a 5YOwhich also does not impress me in this competitive field hence I am discarding. This leaves us with 4 runners whose credentials we have to consider for a possible winner.

ARTISTIC:  has won a class 3 race and finished third in the North India Derby (Delhi). Technically this is the first run in this class. Also got her rating skewed up by finishing 3 in G3 race. With Amyn Merchant declared to guide her fortunes I find it difficult to give her my nod.

PUGNACIOUS:  Has won the same class in his previous start against 3 horse field of aged horses may find it tough to defy penalty, in my opinion.

LADISLAUS:  The career graph shows 3 wins in 14 starts. Has had a gallop in 53-79 (intermediate class) but this is the first run in Class 2. May have excellent chances if this is a 1200M race. Even though cleared his maiden status over 1400M (in third career start) always found 6 furlongs a pet distance than 7 furlongs. Rated at 71 and with A Imran Khan ( who has found some renewed vigour of late) declared to ride is in with a chance.

CARBONARA:  Is a first career start winner and has 3 wins in 13 starts of which 7 starts are in graded company or terms company. Has had a run benefit in this class. He and Ladislaus finished together in their last start and has a slight handicap edge over the latter in this race. The worry is the rider who handles him for the first time and rated at 62 not Pucca class. Has credentials to win.

 On final analysis considering that Carbonara is the only 4YO who has won his career first start and has competed in Graded races more than any other, I am tempted to nominate him as the likely winner of this Trophy race though there are couple of negatives against him.

Best of Luck.

Bangalore Races 20/05/2017

Race 1: The Lady Gibraltar Plate

Master Glory: This 7YO is entered in this race to maintain racing fitness with a view to compete in 5YO races later and has no scope in this open class IV race.

Internal Affair & Thunder Squall: Both these horses have come down a class after competing in higher class in last start, in a million race, and were adrift the winner by only 2 ½ & 4 lengths adrift the winner of that race. Both have an outside chance in this whip less race. But age is against both and one of them could finish in the frame. Can’t be fancied for a win however.

Amazing Love: Had finished disappointing second to In To The Spotlight as a favourite in his last start almost a year back. Obviously something has gone wrong since he has to be shifted to different stable. Very difficult to fancy in his reappearance after a long gap.

Blazing Faith: Eventhough finishing closer to the winner in his last three starts it is unrealistic to fancy him here as he is a 5YO now competing in open class whereas her better performances came in his own age group races.

Galino: With D Patel declared to ride even the connections are not aiming to win.

Majestical: Single 3YO accepted to run in this class IV race. Has not performed a great deal in his previous 3 starts but has run in some prestigious races. This aspect coupled with the fact he is the youngest in the fray should make him the obvious choice. And he is certain to live up to this expectations.

Happy Dancing: A back marker in every sense should trail the field.

Race-2 : The Astounding Plate Div-2

Wrekin:  This long in tooth runner whose last start was in higher class, is accepted to run to gain experience with superior runners and also in a mission to reduce rating points so that can make a winning or place attempt in age group race. Not today.

Sharnolen:  This no hoper has been running races consistently finishing way behind the winner and has nothing to show any improvement and can’t win this race.

Golden Success: Was withdrawn last start in August 2016 due to lameness in left fore. Has skipped the entire winter season. Not here.

Precious Moments:  This is the first career start for this daughter of BECKETT, one of my favourite horses. Even though the solitary morning work published appears to be very good, cannot fancy here. Must have had some set back early in training for the belated debut.

Ramon: This 5YO does not hold any promise. Consistent backmarker.

Zafrina: Should run at cramped odds as a favourite in this race. This highest rated maiden 4Yo has disappointed many times before but I reckon should get it right this time with expanding odds at race time. Not worth a bet if odds are around 6/10 are thereabouts. Morning work do not show any great improvement however.

Love For Life:  With a last start second in Lower class B class I would not fancy this runner in this race especially when she is forced to run in this class. A word of caution though, if for any reason the favourite loses then I would not be surprised if this runner emerges victorious.

High Profile: Is a 5YO who was a fluent winner of B Class, but broke his blood vessel and finished 25 lenghts behind winner in his last start. Will be closer to the frame but difficult to win in this race.

Hidden Deal: This 6YO runner is accepted to run in this race has very little chance to make it to the winning post and could be aiming to use this experience in order to attempt a win in lower class later in the season.

Cashmere: This last start winner of a B class race does not inspire much confidence with the rider declared to guide her fortunes. Must be planning a coup in lower class later.

Finally it is #7 Zafrina may not get a weaker set to shed her maiden status. If she fails it is racing!

Race 3: The Southern Empire Trophy

            In this maiden race for 3yos ,only 3 horses come into reckoning either by the weight of their earlier performance or by the latest track trials. They are Shaman, Castanea & So Mi Dar. Castanea may grab the trophy since Shaman is expected to fail by the sheer weight of expectations.

Race 4: The Sir M. Visvesvaraya Memorial Cup

       Taking advantage of the drop in rating by 6 points the last start winner of the same class Gypsy has excellent credentials to annexe this trophy race though tough competition could emerge from Top Striker & Siobhan both of he has conquered in his last start win. The joker in the pack is Havelock Princess.

Race 5: The Karnataka Police Cup

            Rafa who is a last start winner of the same class and now running with an advantage of 6 points drop in rating for season change is the one to be beaten, especially with a positive change in the saddle from PSC to YSS. Magistero is out of reckoning with drop in distance from 3000M to 1400M.  Spirit And Truth and Royal Sceptre goes out of contention due to the riders inferiority.

Race 6: The Kunigal Stud Plate

            In this race for 5YO & over in Class 3 Shining Magic who finished 3^rd in higher class in his last start and Mariko who was not far away from the winner in same class in her last start are vying for attention in the betting board. Mariko especially with massive change in the saddle from Ajinkya to Suraj could end up favourite at race time. But I am impressed with Rare And Bold who finished second in his last start ahead of Mariko and advantageously placed in scale today and gets my vote.

Race 7: The Dupont Plate

            Areca Cruise who failed as a favourite in his last 2 starts gets my nod ahead of Star Comrade (Mumbai import), Tanoura & Lamrei.

Race 8: The Astounding Plate Div-1

            Dagobert who has been closer to the winner and who is still a maiden should win this race from the likes of Tamara, Cool Springs & Girl With Pearl.

Best of Luck..

Bangalore Summer 2017- Day 1

Race 1:  Afrikaaner,Grand Empire, As Time Goes By, Cantabria & Concept Win are contenders going by the riders declared.  Previous performance indicates that Afrikaaner & Cantabria are the main contenders. But I have a feeling that the race is between Grand Empire & Concept Win going by the preparations. I am tempted to nominate Grand Empire ignoring the claims of others.

Race 2: In this class B division-2 race the claims of Divino, who has run 2^nd in higher class in his last start are too overwhelming to ignore and if ridden without any ulterior design should win hands down.

Race 3: Automatic becomes an automatic choice in this terms race and for those looking for value can try a small place bet on horse #4 Land Of Liberty.

Race 4: #2 Chemical Romance seems to have no business to lose in this class IV race and looks like a very good double prospect for the rider.

Race 5: The likes of Goldberg, Lightning Strikes, Super Success & Topaz may corner betting I am inclined to nominate Side Winder who has won a race in the same class ( weights raised race) and is at the same mark to win this race. The only worry is  the rider who should keep his wits intact.

Race 6: Lady Barrington possesses the best credentials to win this Class III race. The other two career first start winners Sea King & Kangra do not seem to pose much of a threat since the former lost to Mysore based horse at Mysore & the latter cut his teeth at Hyderabad. The other 3YO runner La Magnifique is a Mumbai import and is not a FSW (first start winner) and hence ignored here.

Race 7: Brunesco who has moved from Irfan Ghatala to Gregory Sandhu seems to have the requisite credentials, having been bridesmaid in the higher class in his last race start against the likes of Regency Girl, A Crown & Shivalik Boy.

Race 8: Taking advantage of the 6 point drop in ratings Flirting Eyes who is now competing in the same class animals, which she won in her last start, may not find it difficult here. The drop in distance may not pose much of a problem in view of the poor opposition.

All the best.

Bangalore Summer 2017

            New season, fresh hopes. Despite many a hiccups the Bangalore racing seasons looks like is set for a timely start. With the lack of any action from other major centers, racing at Bangalore is likely to be competitive. Some outstation trainers have brought their wards mainly for spending the summer in salubrious clime and sharpen them up for gambles later in their parent center. A few of these outstation horses may figure in the classic & competitive terms races, more in hope than with confidence. My take is that those horses that train in Bangalore are always superior to that train in other centers in that the track in Bangalore is the most challenging one and getting success at this center gives an edge over others.

            As usual Trevor Patel & the local hero (or villain depending on one’s perception) Suraj Narredu will be hogging the limelight during the season. The other riders who will get the spotlight are Sandesh, John, Neeraj Rawal & the old war horse Y.S. Srinath. The trainers to watch out for will be the young guns Neil Darashah, Arjun Mangalorkar, Attaolahi & of course Padmanabhan with his superior string of horses. Irfan Ghatala has promised many a time to disappoint. Gregory Sandhu & S Narredu will have their share of success in handicap races though they may not offer much hope in the classic scene. The following are the players new to the scene and will encounter tough competition from established players and this season could prove to be one of learning than of success.

1.       NEIL B. DEVANEY

2.       PRAVEEN JESU

3.       DHEERAJ VENKATASWAMY

4.       M. RAJENDRA SINGH

5.       PARVATI BYRAMJI

6.       K.P.G. APPU

            The performance of the following horses will be keenly watched by me as these have shown good promise in their debut season:

Queen Latifa, 

Lady Barrington, 

Apache Sunrise, 

Glittering Gold, 

Streak Ahead,

 Mauritiana, 

Tutankhamun, 

Botswana Bolt.

I must confess however I have not been able to nominate with confidence any one of the above horses as outstanding. Queen Latifa with her record breaking performance comes close but the fact that she has been embroiled in a drug related controversy and the report that she has had a mild set back in training do not embolden me to assign the “outstanding” tag on her. More over I am wary of fillies and am slightly inclined towards geldings & colts for nominating the best promising tag.

            On the whole while the classic scene remains uncertain, there are many promising youngsters who would do well in handicap races where the real money lies for a serious punter.

            I shall continue to share my thoughts as frequently as possible in this space. My best wishes to my punting fraternity.

Bangalore Race card Friday 17.02.2017

Race 1: Mistress Of Spice often disappointing in her early career runs was installed favourite last start which was taken after a long gap. However in that run with YSS astride was found to be lacking in initial speed the rider had to give a crack or two to get her going. She finished some 8 ½ lengths in arrears to the winner and I don’t expect any dramatic improvement. Island Pearl, who finished 2^nd in that race, has an edge. Can’t totally write off MOS though, because of the weak company.

Race 2: Active Grey could attract lot of money in this Class 4 age group race on the fact she ran in higher class last start but in race #140 was behind Cannes. Cannes now gets a better rider. But I am distracted by the credentials of Emancipation who is failed favourite in race #67 and could surprise both AG & Cannes.

 Race 3: The fight is likely to be between Six Degrees & Star Line. Latter has the experience but former has bloodlines to suggest she could clear her maiden status here. Bellerephon is the one who is likely to throw the spanner in the spokes.

Race 4: Ark Royal though has not beaten anything of substance while clearing her maiden status in a class 4 race, I got an impression from watching the video of the race that she would improve and appears unbeatable in this Trophy race and my best betting recommendation for the day.

Race 5: Though Fire Glow has not done anything wrong and as per pattern handicapping bottom up theory fits the bill perfectly, the credentials of Commonwealth is just too overwhelming to ignore. Her last summer victory in Fillies Grade 1 when half fit is still in memory. In my opinion if she had been fit and was campaigned judiciously a very good prospect to lift the Super Mile cup during Invitation weekend. I expect Commonwealth to put it across Fire Glow.

Race 6: The class 3 age group races have a tendency to throw up surprise results. China One, Atlantis, Rapid Advance & Zubaida will be cornering all attention in view of the riders declared. Of these I find Rapid Advance could emerge victorious. Cherie Amour could turn out to be a surprise package though.

Race 7:  Another race where winner picking is difficult.  Blazing Faith is out of my reckoning because he is now exposed by his last start 2^nd. That leaves us with Cannes & Summer Star to pick. I would pick Summer Star among them but it is Sudha the bottom weighted class B horse who could, after her recent mock race, could find herself first at the winning post.

Race 8: Southern Storm going by blood lines can make all others run. The challenge could emerge from Angel Power & Treasure Quest with former have had good preparation going into this race.

BEST OF LUCK.