The Capricorn Stud Plate
Class 3 / Horses Rated 30 to 50 (1600M)
Class 3 / Horses Rated 30 to 50 (1600M)
General Observations:
- In a Class 3 open class race (as opposed to age group), as per my pattern handicapping rule 3YO horses is the most likely winner. 4YO winning this class is an exception. 5YO & above winning is highly unlikely. This is for Bangalore center and not to be confused with some other centers.
- During Bangalore summer season I consider the First career start winners at Bangalore getting a class 3 rating superior to those clear their maiden status in 2nd or subsequent start & those from other centers
- I also always consider the first time ratings assigned by the handicapper as an index in determining the superiority of the horses
- I generally discard those who are entering this class by winning the lower class i.e class 4.
With this preamble let me try unravel the mystery of finding the winner of this race.
Of the 9 horses
declared to run this race 6 horses are 3YOs & 3 horses 4YOs. Discounting
the chances of 4 YOs let us consider the chances of the remaining 6 horses one
by one.
KAMBAKU: cleared maiden status
in in his 5th career start in a plate race over 1400M. Was installed
favourite in his first career start over 1100M (which is very sharp for this
Win Legend-Star Of The Crop progeny), and was upstaged by the 20/1 shot Apache
Sunrise. Next 4 starts found Tutankhamun, Apache Sunrise(again) and Mauritiana
too good and therefore found victory elusive. At the beginning of the fresh
season he found himself rated at 39 and found a mediocre set to register his
victory. In his next start he was guided by Vinod Shinde ( a no job rider, in
my opinion) to third position in a terms trophy race won by Lady In Lace (rated
62). This has resulted in the handicapper slapping a penalty of 10 points which
has resulted in a heavy impost of 60Kgs in this race otherwise would have been
carrying only 55Kgs. Contender.
ULTIMATE MAGIC: could not clear her
maiden status in her 3 career starts and was beaten by Kambaku by over 9 lengths
in her 3rd start. Got rated at 29 for the first time and won a class
4 race in her last start. Got penalized 16 points for that 5 ½ lengths victory
and should find very difficult here in spite of the ace rider guiding her
fortunes.
DR.LOGAN: has had a belated debut
in this season, was given an educative run in his first start and was beaten by
unfancied Pinyada who is also in the fray in this race. He won his second start
quite creditably though the field is not that great but surprisingly rated
highly by the handicapper and rated 40 first time for that effort! Has scope
for further improvement with same rider declared to ride him. Contender.
PANCHOVILLA: is an outstation raider, who seem to have been sent to Bangalore
for summering and experience. Cleared maiden status in his 5th start
at home center Kolkota. Though rated at 41 for the first time (since he
competed in Graded races) could not win a class 3 race earlier in the season
when lost to Vallee Sceptre (rated 40). May find it tough here, in my opinion.
I will be surprised if he wins.
PINYADA: Though a winner over
DR.Logan, another contender, in his second lifetime start, was with withdrawn
in his latest declared start due to lameness on left hind limb. Rated at 35 do
not possess enough ability, in my assessment, even with assistance from Sandesh
in the saddle.
In the final
analysis of the two contenders Kambaku & Dr.Logan, my vote goes to Kambaku
who, even though carrying an heavier impost, has better experience having
matched strides with some of the good type of horses like Tutankahamun, Mauritiana,
Lady In Lace & Apache Sunrise. Dr.Logan though could have improved do not
possess the matching experience.
I have given my
reading of the race. Each one has the liberty to make his choice.
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