Dear readers I am posting some of my posts I made in Indiarace Horsetalk while I was very active there. Some of the posts are relevant even today. Hope some of the readers get some insight.

       The following is a post by one SUN and my reply:
sun said ...   1/10/2012 9:41:49 AM 

Dear All,
Now that we have had the benefit of so many exchanges on PNR etc let me state the problem as follows.
Assumptions 1) Races are run in a competetive spirit and there is not much of pulling of horses to drastically influence the Time Clocked for a race.In other words in majority of cases Average Times are turned out and among these races there are few races which standout in the Time turned out and horses of those races present us good bets.
2)Handicapper has to rely on this very same data in Revising the Ratings and cannot be whimsical in raising ratings abnormally in isolation of horses performance
Having made these assumptions let us look at the variables on the Time Clocked.
1.Weight carried by the horse
2.Distance of the race.
3.Class of race Becomes important because same hose in higher class carries lower weight resulting in a better time in higher class.
4.PNR which has influence on the time clocked.
Now if we can find empirical values to normalise the above varianles to come to a common platform then we can spot winners more easily.I have been trying various formulae in working out this with limited success.
My interaction with knowledgeable people like chanakya,drcheenu,sksagar,vamanan, glasgow prince etc has given me some encouragement.All these people being professionals to the core have also opined that such attempt is too theoretical and success is a mirage.In spite of this I am continuing my search for this.
Now what is resolved to a reasonable degree is Adjustment of Time due to change in Weight.On others I invite your feedback,however caustic it may be.
Thanks.

My Reply....

Dear Sun,

This is with reference to your post -1/10/2012 9:41:49 AM 

I am sorry for the belated response. I am not getting sufficient spare time to keep up with the momentum with which this discussion seems to be going.

I am giving below the raw timings clocked by Sirono & Optimus Prime during Bangalore Summer Season 2011 for 1200M races.

SIRONO 52.5 Kg  SURAJ NARREDU 1:12:28 PNR(2.9) 80 &above (Seasons best timing)

SIRONO 55 Kg  P S CHOUHAN  1:12:55 PNR(2.6) Terms 4 Y O & OVER

SIRONO 57 Kg PS CHOUHAN   1:12:76 PNR (3.5) 60-85

Now how do you analyse this?

OPTIMUS PRIME 54 Kg SURAJ NARREDU 1:12:49 PNR (3.6) 80 & ABOVE (2^ND BEST TIME)

OPTIMUS PRIME 60 Kg S JOHN   1:12:76 PNR (3.0) 80 & ABOVE

OPTIMUS PRIME 55.5 Kg S JOHN 1:13:14 PNR (2.9) 80 & ABOVE

From the above data you know that both Sirono&Optimus Prime are capable of clocking a time of around 1:12:5 for a 1200 M race. Once you keep this in mind the PNR value or the Wt. assigned are of little relevance. I have normalized the time in a jiffy – no complex calculations.

I only look in a race card whether there is another animal which is capable to clock similar or better time when either of the above horses is accepted. Capable is the operative word here because it reflects the potential. Then I consider whether the horses in question have current form and in good condition.And finally look for the INTENT from the connections.

If a race card is studied this way you can zero in on the real contenders & get to the winner easily. This is one type of handicapping method with the aid of “Timings Clocked” as the main parameter. There are some other methods also (elimination method is another), which independently or in conjunction with one another, can help you to identify the winner.

If you ask me I am in agreement with Cruise that the pace of the race determines the timing clocked. I may add that the Class or category in which the horse is running mostly determines the pace. That’s why you will find that the timings clocked in higher classes are always better than the lower classes. Normally I rate the horses as to which class it belongs based on the timings they clock, especially those 3yo s which run in Maiden races.