Continuing from my earlier posts on HT.

The so called Champion Jockeys

There have been many a comment in this space about the deteriorating performance of champion Jockeys of last season, namely, SurajNarredu& S. John. Some even attributing “deviousness” on the part of the Jockeys and connections. Whatever it is it is plain that these top rung Jockeys, Suraj, John, A. Imran Khan, Srinath, Alford, Rajendra, even I Chisty have seem to have lost focus on their fitness regime. Hence, they have lost the expected “Spark” in their riding.  Suraj is Weighing close to 55kgs. S.John is well over 55 kgs and I heard an announcement by BTC on 4/3/12 that A. Imran Khan is weighing 56.5 Kgs and is over weight on his mount by ½ kg. I Chisty once considered a safe and reliable Jockey on bottom weights is now weighs around 52 Kgs. Less said the better about Srinath, C. Rajendra& C. Alford etc.

No wonder Trevors & Sandeshes who weigh around 48 kgs rule the turf. With increase in body weight the Jockey loses the suppleness which is an important factor to give a good and effective ride. With more weight the body develops stiffness and the result is the lack of quality rides. I remember the great Aslam Kader ( who was fondly nick named AK 47 for his thunderous finishes and his low body weight), and PesiShroff made every effort to keep their physic in top shape and their body weight under check.

Are our present day Jockeys more licentious than their peers of the earlier generation when it comes to commitment ?

Comments please.

This piece of write up is relevant even today. Only the actors are different!

Dear readers I am posting some of my posts I made in Indiarace Horsetalk while I was very active there. Some of the posts are relevant even today. Hope some of the readers get some insight.

       The following is a post by one SUN and my reply:
sun said ...   1/10/2012 9:41:49 AM 

Dear All,
Now that we have had the benefit of so many exchanges on PNR etc let me state the problem as follows.
Assumptions 1) Races are run in a competetive spirit and there is not much of pulling of horses to drastically influence the Time Clocked for a race.In other words in majority of cases Average Times are turned out and among these races there are few races which standout in the Time turned out and horses of those races present us good bets.
2)Handicapper has to rely on this very same data in Revising the Ratings and cannot be whimsical in raising ratings abnormally in isolation of horses performance
Having made these assumptions let us look at the variables on the Time Clocked.
1.Weight carried by the horse
2.Distance of the race.
3.Class of race Becomes important because same hose in higher class carries lower weight resulting in a better time in higher class.
4.PNR which has influence on the time clocked.
Now if we can find empirical values to normalise the above varianles to come to a common platform then we can spot winners more easily.I have been trying various formulae in working out this with limited success.
My interaction with knowledgeable people like chanakya,drcheenu,sksagar,vamanan, glasgow prince etc has given me some encouragement.All these people being professionals to the core have also opined that such attempt is too theoretical and success is a mirage.In spite of this I am continuing my search for this.
Now what is resolved to a reasonable degree is Adjustment of Time due to change in Weight.On others I invite your feedback,however caustic it may be.
Thanks.

My Reply....

Dear Sun,

This is with reference to your post -1/10/2012 9:41:49 AM 

I am sorry for the belated response. I am not getting sufficient spare time to keep up with the momentum with which this discussion seems to be going.

I am giving below the raw timings clocked by Sirono & Optimus Prime during Bangalore Summer Season 2011 for 1200M races.

SIRONO 52.5 Kg  SURAJ NARREDU 1:12:28 PNR(2.9) 80 &above (Seasons best timing)

SIRONO 55 Kg  P S CHOUHAN  1:12:55 PNR(2.6) Terms 4 Y O & OVER

SIRONO 57 Kg PS CHOUHAN   1:12:76 PNR (3.5) 60-85

Now how do you analyse this?

OPTIMUS PRIME 54 Kg SURAJ NARREDU 1:12:49 PNR (3.6) 80 & ABOVE (2^ND BEST TIME)

OPTIMUS PRIME 60 Kg S JOHN   1:12:76 PNR (3.0) 80 & ABOVE

OPTIMUS PRIME 55.5 Kg S JOHN 1:13:14 PNR (2.9) 80 & ABOVE

From the above data you know that both Sirono&Optimus Prime are capable of clocking a time of around 1:12:5 for a 1200 M race. Once you keep this in mind the PNR value or the Wt. assigned are of little relevance. I have normalized the time in a jiffy – no complex calculations.

I only look in a race card whether there is another animal which is capable to clock similar or better time when either of the above horses is accepted. Capable is the operative word here because it reflects the potential. Then I consider whether the horses in question have current form and in good condition.And finally look for the INTENT from the connections.

If a race card is studied this way you can zero in on the real contenders & get to the winner easily. This is one type of handicapping method with the aid of “Timings Clocked” as the main parameter. There are some other methods also (elimination method is another), which independently or in conjunction with one another, can help you to identify the winner.

If you ask me I am in agreement with Cruise that the pace of the race determines the timing clocked. I may add that the Class or category in which the horse is running mostly determines the pace. That’s why you will find that the timings clocked in higher classes are always better than the lower classes. Normally I rate the horses as to which class it belongs based on the timings they clock, especially those 3yo s which run in Maiden races.

The Field Marshall Sam Manekshaw Memorial Trophy

Class 3 / Horses Rated 40 to 66 (1600M).

This is a more interesting race, from study point of view, than the Eves Champions Trophy of the 8 races scheduled for today, 13.08.2017. I am going to express my thought process below as I read the race card of this race. I may not be correct at the conclusion but I imagine that it should provide the readers some insight.

IN MY DREAM: Rated at 61,this filly could not win her First career start, for that matter was bridesmaid in first 3 career starts, and finished 3^rd in her 4^th start before shedding maiden status against class 3 opposition in her 5^th start. She had been beaten in her career by more illustrious peers, such as Germanicus, Bold March, Accolade & Temerity. You will agree In My Dream could not have beaten them as a maiden. After her maiden win win she was pitched in Fillies Trials where she finished 5^th to Mrs Patmore. It seems she has suffered a minor set back and as was not seen racing thereafter. I am assuming she has been nursed back to sufficient fitness as evidenced by her close 3^rd in a mock race. She is certainly a contender even though she is same class winner (SCW).

NELSON BLOOD: is a last start winner of this class. This gelding justified my faith by winning his first start in Pune in class 3. He was not a first start winner and cleared his maiden status in his 4^th start in Lower class (Class 4).Mile is his forte and as such won pillar to post very nicely indeed. Normally an SCW is a discard in my method of handicapping. But if you see NB had won at a rating of 46 and is penalized just 10 points for that victory which makes him ineligible to compete in class 2 at 56 rating. He is a contender even though he is running within 2 weeks of his previous start.

VOLANTIS: This filly has cleared her maiden status in only her 7^th start and in the assessment of the trainer is a runner with potential to win long distance races. She is a same class winner and has had a good preparation with a mock race & regular morning work outs. She is competing here because she is rated in this class like Nelsons Blood. My take is she would use this race as a preparatory gallop for some other longer distance race in future. Though cannot rule out entirely.

GLORIOUS EYES: This filly is a disappointment for me since I expected her to do well after she won her career first start and competed in a grade 3 race in her first season. She struggled to get her next victory in class 4, and was on board in her last 3 start in this class. I consider that she needs a much inferior company to register he next win. Not here.

TIMELESS: is the lone 3YO contender in this class 3 set. Registered his victory in his first start as a rank outsider (11/1odds), and ran on second & 3^rd in his two subsequent starts to the well performed 3YOs, Tutankhamun & Ruffina. As a result was installed an favourite in his last start in which he performed well below par in that he came 7^th out of 7 horses. He is being prepared meticulously in morning work and looks like a contender here. But it has been experience that whenever there is single 3YO in class 3 it loses more often than not.

JAGER BOMB: I don’t think I need to discuss much about this long in tooth gelding who is here either to make up the card or to aid somehow his stable mate. Discarded.

In the final analysis I am nominating IN MY DREAM as my pick since I feel she is far more classy than the other runners in this field.

Best of luck.

Bangalore Selections 10-08-2017

Race 1:  The highest rated 3YO maiden Cantabria has to take this race with ease.

Race 2:   Even though a 3YO in 2000M for the first time is suspect, I think Implicit Trust can have the race in view of the poor competition. Brave Girl might look like a threat but for her also this is first time running this distance. Love Is Life is the real danger though.

Race 3:  Arizona has no business to lose this race.

Race 4:   JUSTICE ANGEL stands tall in this race. My days best.

Race 5:  Malana may find her winning shoes here with distance now dropped to 1100M.

Race 6: It could be an end of a long winless wait for Red Admiral.

Race 7:  Talldega though resuming after a lay off gets bits and pieces opposition. Either aged or those with vet issues. May oblige. 

Best of luck!

The Rajah S. R. K. Ranga Row Memorial Cup

Class 2 / Horses Rated 45 to 65- 1400M

• GYPSY: is a 4YO colt has already won this class by beating good horses like Arvak, Siobahn, Antananiravo etc, who have later registered victory.But in my handicapping method I generally discard same class winner(SCW) unless I have strong reasons to consider. I also think Gypsy finds 1400M a little stiff and with Nazerul Alam declared to ride his chances are dim here.
•  JUSTICE ANGEL: This career first start winner was highly thought of by the connections initially and was competing in graded races matching strides with the likes of Serjeant At Arms , Whomakestherules etc. Has had a mild set back and was shifted stables to Imtiaz Khan Khan who has patiently nursed her back to peak fitness which was evident when she steamrolled the opposition in her last start albeit in lower class. She looked a picture in the paddock when paraded last. Has excellent chance here.
• TOPAZ: is a 5YO horse had come up through the handicap route,has had a tough time to clear the class 3 but found a friendly bunch in this class to register victory. SCW & 5Yo hence discared.
• BONFIRE: This 5YO mare has won higher clss and been in and out races since then. In her last start finished 9 ¾ lengths behind winner. Cant’t fancy here.
• BURNISHED GOLD:  has had uninspiring runs in her last 4 starts. Cannot expect her to improve with this rider. Ignored.
• AMAZING REDD: this long in tooth competitor has to find more friendly set to come victorious. Not here.
• EMIDIO: has two career wins and his last victory was in class 4. Has not won the lower class and as such is not considered here.
• ALEXANDRITE:  Age and ability is against mare. She finds Class 2 a tough proposition and is on a weight reduction mission to try a coup in lower class later. Perhaps at Mysore in age group race. Not my fancy here.
• RACING FIRE: this 4YO gelding is a winner of this class (SCW), and finished at the back end of the field in her last start. Ignored.
• REAL STEEL: Age, form, fitness intent everything is amiss with this gelding.
• MOON DANCER: this rig is likely to be installed as a favourite in this race mainly on account of the stable, ownership and trainers credentials and also being the only 3YO in the field. For me these are all misplaced credentials. Has not done anything remarkable in his career for such support in Class 2. Her last start was pathetic, finishing 26 lengths behind winner even though in graded company. His earlier two victories came in Hyderabad where he was with a different trainer and inferior company. He was not even a career first start winner. I will be surprised if he wins. Good luck to all who back him.
• WAR ENVOY: as a favourite finished 7 lengths behind Racing Fire in his last start which was 5months ago and is resuming after a break. Though his morning work appears alright would be difficult to register a win after the long break. Should use this race to regain race fitness, in my opinion.

         So in the final analysis Justice Angel stands tall in this card and should score an encore, though I normally don't encourage betting on a runner who is having its first run in this class  I recommend that we can make that odd exception to that rule today.

Good Luck.

The Capricorn Stud Plate
Class 3 / Horses Rated 30 to 50  (1600M)

General Observations:

• In a Class 3 open class race (as opposed to age group), as per my pattern handicapping rule 3YO horses is the most likely winner. 4YO winning this class is an exception. 5YO & above winning is highly unlikely. This is for Bangalore center and not to be confused with some other centers.
•  During Bangalore summer season I consider the First career start winners at Bangalore getting a class 3 rating superior to those clear their maiden status in 2^nd or subsequent start & those from other centers
•  I also always consider the first time ratings assigned by the handicapper as an index in determining the superiority of the horses
• I generally discard those who are entering this class by winning the lower class i.e class 4.   

With this preamble let me try unravel the mystery of finding the winner of this race.

            Of the 9 horses declared to run this race 6 horses are 3YOs & 3 horses 4YOs. Discounting the chances of 4 YOs let us consider the chances of the remaining 6 horses one by one.

KAMBAKU: cleared maiden status in in his 5^th career start in a plate race over 1400M. Was installed favourite in his first career start over 1100M (which is very sharp for this Win Legend-Star Of The Crop progeny), and was upstaged by the 20/1 shot Apache Sunrise. Next 4 starts found Tutankhamun, Apache Sunrise(again) and Mauritiana too good and therefore found victory elusive. At the beginning of the fresh season he found himself rated at 39 and found a mediocre set to register his victory. In his next start he was guided by Vinod Shinde ( a no job rider, in my opinion) to third position in a terms trophy race won by Lady In Lace (rated 62). This has resulted in the handicapper slapping a penalty of 10 points which has resulted in a heavy impost of 60Kgs in this race otherwise would have been carrying only 55Kgs. Contender.

ULTIMATE MAGIC: could not clear her maiden status in her 3 career starts and was beaten by Kambaku by over 9 lengths in her 3^rd start. Got rated at 29 for the first time and won a class 4 race in her last start. Got penalized 16 points for that 5 ½ lengths victory and should find very difficult here in spite of the ace rider guiding her fortunes.

DR.LOGAN: has had a belated debut in this season, was given an educative run in his first start and was beaten by unfancied Pinyada who is also in the fray in this race. He won his second start quite creditably though the field is not that great but surprisingly rated highly by the handicapper and rated 40 first time for that effort! Has scope for further improvement with same rider declared to ride him. Contender.

PANCHOVILLA: is an outstation raider, who seem to have been sent to Bangalore for summering and experience. Cleared maiden status in his 5^th start at home center Kolkota. Though rated at 41 for the first time (since he competed in Graded races) could not win a class 3 race earlier in the season when lost to Vallee Sceptre (rated 40). May find it tough here, in my opinion. I will be surprised if he wins.

PINYADA: Though a winner over DR.Logan, another contender, in his second lifetime start, was with withdrawn in his latest declared start due to lameness on left hind limb. Rated at 35 do not possess enough ability, in my assessment, even with assistance from Sandesh in the saddle.

            In the final analysis of the two contenders Kambaku & Dr.Logan, my vote goes to Kambaku who, even though carrying an heavier impost, has better experience having matched strides with some of the good type of horses like Tutankahamun, Mauritiana, Lady In Lace & Apache Sunrise. Dr.Logan though could have improved do not possess the matching experience.

            I have given my reading of the race. Each one has the liberty to make his choice.

Good luck.