The Dr S R Captain Trophy

Horses Rated 60 to 86

4th race in 28/07/2017 Pune race card.

General Observations:

1. As a pattern handicapping rule in an open class 2 race normally 4yo horses will win. Aged horses (5&6YO) winning is an exception. During the previous Pune season out of 15 races in 60-86 only one race was won by a 5YO. Remaining 14 races were won by 4YOs.
2. Normally I consider horses rated between 67 & 79 which I call Pucca class. The point is horses rated 60-66 & 80-86 belong to overlapping class i.e lower class or higher class. Though this is not a rule generally so. Horses in 60-66 band do at times win races provided they had a run benefit in the class 2.
3. I generally discard those horses which are making a call in the class for the first time unless they are exceptionally good. say classy animals.
4. With this preamble let me consider the card with an aim to pick the likely winner.

There are 10 horses declared to run this race of which only 4 of them are 4YOs. Horse#1, 3,7 & 9. Horse #2, 4, 5, 6 & 10 are aged horses 6YO & above and I am straight away discarding. Horse # 6 is a 5YOwhich also does not impress me in this competitive field hence I am discarding. This leaves us with 4 runners whose credentials we have to consider for a possible winner.

ARTISTIC:  has won a class 3 race and finished third in the North India Derby (Delhi). Technically this is the first run in this class. Also got her rating skewed up by finishing 3 in G3 race. With Amyn Merchant declared to guide her fortunes I find it difficult to give her my nod.

PUGNACIOUS:  Has won the same class in his previous start against 3 horse field of aged horses may find it tough to defy penalty, in my opinion.

LADISLAUS:  The career graph shows 3 wins in 14 starts. Has had a gallop in 53-79 (intermediate class) but this is the first run in Class 2. May have excellent chances if this is a 1200M race. Even though cleared his maiden status over 1400M (in third career start) always found 6 furlongs a pet distance than 7 furlongs. Rated at 71 and with A Imran Khan ( who has found some renewed vigour of late) declared to ride is in with a chance.

CARBONARA:  Is a first career start winner and has 3 wins in 13 starts of which 7 starts are in graded company or terms company. Has had a run benefit in this class. He and Ladislaus finished together in their last start and has a slight handicap edge over the latter in this race. The worry is the rider who handles him for the first time and rated at 62 not Pucca class. Has credentials to win.

 On final analysis considering that Carbonara is the only 4YO who has won his career first start and has competed in Graded races more than any other, I am tempted to nominate him as the likely winner of this Trophy race though there are couple of negatives against him.

Best of Luck.