The Dr S R Captain Trophy

Horses Rated 60 to 86

4th race in 28/07/2017 Pune race card.

General Observations:

1. As a pattern handicapping rule in an open class 2 race normally 4yo horses will win. Aged horses (5&6YO) winning is an exception. During the previous Pune season out of 15 races in 60-86 only one race was won by a 5YO. Remaining 14 races were won by 4YOs.
2. Normally I consider horses rated between 67 & 79 which I call Pucca class. The point is horses rated 60-66 & 80-86 belong to overlapping class i.e lower class or higher class. Though this is not a rule generally so. Horses in 60-66 band do at times win races provided they had a run benefit in the class 2.
3. I generally discard those horses which are making a call in the class for the first time unless they are exceptionally good. say classy animals.
4. With this preamble let me consider the card with an aim to pick the likely winner.

There are 10 horses declared to run this race of which only 4 of them are 4YOs. Horse#1, 3,7 & 9. Horse #2, 4, 5, 6 & 10 are aged horses 6YO & above and I am straight away discarding. Horse # 6 is a 5YOwhich also does not impress me in this competitive field hence I am discarding. This leaves us with 4 runners whose credentials we have to consider for a possible winner.

ARTISTIC:  has won a class 3 race and finished third in the North India Derby (Delhi). Technically this is the first run in this class. Also got her rating skewed up by finishing 3 in G3 race. With Amyn Merchant declared to guide her fortunes I find it difficult to give her my nod.

PUGNACIOUS:  Has won the same class in his previous start against 3 horse field of aged horses may find it tough to defy penalty, in my opinion.

LADISLAUS:  The career graph shows 3 wins in 14 starts. Has had a gallop in 53-79 (intermediate class) but this is the first run in Class 2. May have excellent chances if this is a 1200M race. Even though cleared his maiden status over 1400M (in third career start) always found 6 furlongs a pet distance than 7 furlongs. Rated at 71 and with A Imran Khan ( who has found some renewed vigour of late) declared to ride is in with a chance.

CARBONARA:  Is a first career start winner and has 3 wins in 13 starts of which 7 starts are in graded company or terms company. Has had a run benefit in this class. He and Ladislaus finished together in their last start and has a slight handicap edge over the latter in this race. The worry is the rider who handles him for the first time and rated at 62 not Pucca class. Has credentials to win.

 On final analysis considering that Carbonara is the only 4YO who has won his career first start and has competed in Graded races more than any other, I am tempted to nominate him as the likely winner of this Trophy race though there are couple of negatives against him.

Best of Luck.

Bangalore Races 20/05/2017

Race 1: The Lady Gibraltar Plate

Master Glory: This 7YO is entered in this race to maintain racing fitness with a view to compete in 5YO races later and has no scope in this open class IV race.

Internal Affair & Thunder Squall: Both these horses have come down a class after competing in higher class in last start, in a million race, and were adrift the winner by only 2 ½ & 4 lengths adrift the winner of that race. Both have an outside chance in this whip less race. But age is against both and one of them could finish in the frame. Can’t be fancied for a win however.

Amazing Love: Had finished disappointing second to In To The Spotlight as a favourite in his last start almost a year back. Obviously something has gone wrong since he has to be shifted to different stable. Very difficult to fancy in his reappearance after a long gap.

Blazing Faith: Eventhough finishing closer to the winner in his last three starts it is unrealistic to fancy him here as he is a 5YO now competing in open class whereas her better performances came in his own age group races.

Galino: With D Patel declared to ride even the connections are not aiming to win.

Majestical: Single 3YO accepted to run in this class IV race. Has not performed a great deal in his previous 3 starts but has run in some prestigious races. This aspect coupled with the fact he is the youngest in the fray should make him the obvious choice. And he is certain to live up to this expectations.

Happy Dancing: A back marker in every sense should trail the field.

Race-2 : The Astounding Plate Div-2

Wrekin:  This long in tooth runner whose last start was in higher class, is accepted to run to gain experience with superior runners and also in a mission to reduce rating points so that can make a winning or place attempt in age group race. Not today.

Sharnolen:  This no hoper has been running races consistently finishing way behind the winner and has nothing to show any improvement and can’t win this race.

Golden Success: Was withdrawn last start in August 2016 due to lameness in left fore. Has skipped the entire winter season. Not here.

Precious Moments:  This is the first career start for this daughter of BECKETT, one of my favourite horses. Even though the solitary morning work published appears to be very good, cannot fancy here. Must have had some set back early in training for the belated debut.

Ramon: This 5YO does not hold any promise. Consistent backmarker.

Zafrina: Should run at cramped odds as a favourite in this race. This highest rated maiden 4Yo has disappointed many times before but I reckon should get it right this time with expanding odds at race time. Not worth a bet if odds are around 6/10 are thereabouts. Morning work do not show any great improvement however.

Love For Life:  With a last start second in Lower class B class I would not fancy this runner in this race especially when she is forced to run in this class. A word of caution though, if for any reason the favourite loses then I would not be surprised if this runner emerges victorious.

High Profile: Is a 5YO who was a fluent winner of B Class, but broke his blood vessel and finished 25 lenghts behind winner in his last start. Will be closer to the frame but difficult to win in this race.

Hidden Deal: This 6YO runner is accepted to run in this race has very little chance to make it to the winning post and could be aiming to use this experience in order to attempt a win in lower class later in the season.

Cashmere: This last start winner of a B class race does not inspire much confidence with the rider declared to guide her fortunes. Must be planning a coup in lower class later.

Finally it is #7 Zafrina may not get a weaker set to shed her maiden status. If she fails it is racing!

Race 3: The Southern Empire Trophy

            In this maiden race for 3yos ,only 3 horses come into reckoning either by the weight of their earlier performance or by the latest track trials. They are Shaman, Castanea & So Mi Dar. Castanea may grab the trophy since Shaman is expected to fail by the sheer weight of expectations.

Race 4: The Sir M. Visvesvaraya Memorial Cup

       Taking advantage of the drop in rating by 6 points the last start winner of the same class Gypsy has excellent credentials to annexe this trophy race though tough competition could emerge from Top Striker & Siobhan both of he has conquered in his last start win. The joker in the pack is Havelock Princess.

Race 5: The Karnataka Police Cup

            Rafa who is a last start winner of the same class and now running with an advantage of 6 points drop in rating for season change is the one to be beaten, especially with a positive change in the saddle from PSC to YSS. Magistero is out of reckoning with drop in distance from 3000M to 1400M.  Spirit And Truth and Royal Sceptre goes out of contention due to the riders inferiority.

Race 6: The Kunigal Stud Plate

            In this race for 5YO & over in Class 3 Shining Magic who finished 3^rd in higher class in his last start and Mariko who was not far away from the winner in same class in her last start are vying for attention in the betting board. Mariko especially with massive change in the saddle from Ajinkya to Suraj could end up favourite at race time. But I am impressed with Rare And Bold who finished second in his last start ahead of Mariko and advantageously placed in scale today and gets my vote.

Race 7: The Dupont Plate

            Areca Cruise who failed as a favourite in his last 2 starts gets my nod ahead of Star Comrade (Mumbai import), Tanoura & Lamrei.

Race 8: The Astounding Plate Div-1

            Dagobert who has been closer to the winner and who is still a maiden should win this race from the likes of Tamara, Cool Springs & Girl With Pearl.

Best of Luck..

Bangalore Summer 2017- Day 1

Race 1:  Afrikaaner,Grand Empire, As Time Goes By, Cantabria & Concept Win are contenders going by the riders declared.  Previous performance indicates that Afrikaaner & Cantabria are the main contenders. But I have a feeling that the race is between Grand Empire & Concept Win going by the preparations. I am tempted to nominate Grand Empire ignoring the claims of others.

Race 2: In this class B division-2 race the claims of Divino, who has run 2^nd in higher class in his last start are too overwhelming to ignore and if ridden without any ulterior design should win hands down.

Race 3: Automatic becomes an automatic choice in this terms race and for those looking for value can try a small place bet on horse #4 Land Of Liberty.

Race 4: #2 Chemical Romance seems to have no business to lose in this class IV race and looks like a very good double prospect for the rider.

Race 5: The likes of Goldberg, Lightning Strikes, Super Success & Topaz may corner betting I am inclined to nominate Side Winder who has won a race in the same class ( weights raised race) and is at the same mark to win this race. The only worry is  the rider who should keep his wits intact.

Race 6: Lady Barrington possesses the best credentials to win this Class III race. The other two career first start winners Sea King & Kangra do not seem to pose much of a threat since the former lost to Mysore based horse at Mysore & the latter cut his teeth at Hyderabad. The other 3YO runner La Magnifique is a Mumbai import and is not a FSW (first start winner) and hence ignored here.

Race 7: Brunesco who has moved from Irfan Ghatala to Gregory Sandhu seems to have the requisite credentials, having been bridesmaid in the higher class in his last race start against the likes of Regency Girl, A Crown & Shivalik Boy.

Race 8: Taking advantage of the 6 point drop in ratings Flirting Eyes who is now competing in the same class animals, which she won in her last start, may not find it difficult here. The drop in distance may not pose much of a problem in view of the poor opposition.

All the best.

Bangalore Summer 2017

            New season, fresh hopes. Despite many a hiccups the Bangalore racing seasons looks like is set for a timely start. With the lack of any action from other major centers, racing at Bangalore is likely to be competitive. Some outstation trainers have brought their wards mainly for spending the summer in salubrious clime and sharpen them up for gambles later in their parent center. A few of these outstation horses may figure in the classic & competitive terms races, more in hope than with confidence. My take is that those horses that train in Bangalore are always superior to that train in other centers in that the track in Bangalore is the most challenging one and getting success at this center gives an edge over others.

            As usual Trevor Patel & the local hero (or villain depending on one’s perception) Suraj Narredu will be hogging the limelight during the season. The other riders who will get the spotlight are Sandesh, John, Neeraj Rawal & the old war horse Y.S. Srinath. The trainers to watch out for will be the young guns Neil Darashah, Arjun Mangalorkar, Attaolahi & of course Padmanabhan with his superior string of horses. Irfan Ghatala has promised many a time to disappoint. Gregory Sandhu & S Narredu will have their share of success in handicap races though they may not offer much hope in the classic scene. The following are the players new to the scene and will encounter tough competition from established players and this season could prove to be one of learning than of success.

1.       NEIL B. DEVANEY

2.       PRAVEEN JESU

3.       DHEERAJ VENKATASWAMY

4.       M. RAJENDRA SINGH

5.       PARVATI BYRAMJI

6.       K.P.G. APPU

            The performance of the following horses will be keenly watched by me as these have shown good promise in their debut season:

Queen Latifa, 

Lady Barrington, 

Apache Sunrise, 

Glittering Gold, 

Streak Ahead,

 Mauritiana, 

Tutankhamun, 

Botswana Bolt.

I must confess however I have not been able to nominate with confidence any one of the above horses as outstanding. Queen Latifa with her record breaking performance comes close but the fact that she has been embroiled in a drug related controversy and the report that she has had a mild set back in training do not embolden me to assign the “outstanding” tag on her. More over I am wary of fillies and am slightly inclined towards geldings & colts for nominating the best promising tag.

            On the whole while the classic scene remains uncertain, there are many promising youngsters who would do well in handicap races where the real money lies for a serious punter.

            I shall continue to share my thoughts as frequently as possible in this space. My best wishes to my punting fraternity.

Bangalore Race card Friday 17.02.2017

Race 1: Mistress Of Spice often disappointing in her early career runs was installed favourite last start which was taken after a long gap. However in that run with YSS astride was found to be lacking in initial speed the rider had to give a crack or two to get her going. She finished some 8 ½ lengths in arrears to the winner and I don’t expect any dramatic improvement. Island Pearl, who finished 2^nd in that race, has an edge. Can’t totally write off MOS though, because of the weak company.

Race 2: Active Grey could attract lot of money in this Class 4 age group race on the fact she ran in higher class last start but in race #140 was behind Cannes. Cannes now gets a better rider. But I am distracted by the credentials of Emancipation who is failed favourite in race #67 and could surprise both AG & Cannes.

 Race 3: The fight is likely to be between Six Degrees & Star Line. Latter has the experience but former has bloodlines to suggest she could clear her maiden status here. Bellerephon is the one who is likely to throw the spanner in the spokes.

Race 4: Ark Royal though has not beaten anything of substance while clearing her maiden status in a class 4 race, I got an impression from watching the video of the race that she would improve and appears unbeatable in this Trophy race and my best betting recommendation for the day.

Race 5: Though Fire Glow has not done anything wrong and as per pattern handicapping bottom up theory fits the bill perfectly, the credentials of Commonwealth is just too overwhelming to ignore. Her last summer victory in Fillies Grade 1 when half fit is still in memory. In my opinion if she had been fit and was campaigned judiciously a very good prospect to lift the Super Mile cup during Invitation weekend. I expect Commonwealth to put it across Fire Glow.

Race 6: The class 3 age group races have a tendency to throw up surprise results. China One, Atlantis, Rapid Advance & Zubaida will be cornering all attention in view of the riders declared. Of these I find Rapid Advance could emerge victorious. Cherie Amour could turn out to be a surprise package though.

Race 7:  Another race where winner picking is difficult.  Blazing Faith is out of my reckoning because he is now exposed by his last start 2^nd. That leaves us with Cannes & Summer Star to pick. I would pick Summer Star among them but it is Sudha the bottom weighted class B horse who could, after her recent mock race, could find herself first at the winning post.

Race 8: Southern Storm going by blood lines can make all others run. The challenge could emerge from Angel Power & Treasure Quest with former have had good preparation going into this race.

BEST OF LUCK.

Bangalore Race card Saturday 11-.02.2012

Race 1:  Buscadero who was rated 30 for the first time ahead of Torrorosso who was rated only 28 who went on to win the coveted Bangalore Derby race, has got the credentials to win this race despite the change in stables from Sulieman to Gregory. The field is not an imposing one as every runner here had finished way behind except Jersey Beauty on whom the intention is to give a race run after a long gap.

Race 2: With the available evidence and the fact that she had taken a level Jump in the latest gate practice, unlike her last start where she lost ground at the beginning, Simple Sum could win this B class race. Winsomeness may pose some threat theoretically but she was withdrawn only two weeks back at the gates on veterinary ground which has tilted the balance against her.

 Race 3: With Girl With Pearl & Heaven And Earth discarded since they are same class winners, Nyssa, Jack Of Hearts, Call Me May Be & Jayadratha stand a chance to claim this plate race. Nyssa has the tallest claim what with having strode alongside Hall Of Famer and Starcracker and also importantly rated 31 by the handicapper when ratings were assigned first time. But the connections have had a lucrative double yesterday and since this runner has changed hands from Dominic to Neil I am passing it on. Jack Of Heart had a very bad run last start for no apparent reason finishing 17 ¼ lengths behind winner. Can’t fancy  here. Dhebe also had a lucrative double yesterday. Call Me May Be, may be considered but why negative intentions by declaring a claimer when stable hand A Imran Khan is available? That leaves Jayadratha who has weights in his favour against both Girl With Pearl & Heaven And Earth. Should win.

Race 4: Alexandrite, Aayan, Rafa and Integrated are the contenders. Rest of the runners are pretenders in my view. Of the 4 Integrated looks out handicapped though the best performed one. Alexandrite could not put in a winning gallop even in the lower class this season and therefore ignored here. Rafa who won the Mysore Colts trial stake but subsequently came 36 ½ lenths behind winner in a million race presumably bled during race looks to come back to health. His last start 2^nd to Dubai One ahead of Siobhan was evidence that he is OK and is therefore rightfully installed favourite. But precisely that reason I am incline towards nominating Aayan as my choice. Aayan has been biding his time ever since he won a class 3 Million race at Chennai on Invitation weekend. He has run in a graded race and a couple of Class 1 races in Bangalore thereafter. His last start 3^rd just 2 ¼ lengths behind Jersey Wonder who went on to win 3 races in a row since then, gives me confidence to nominate this horse as my choice.

Race 5: The Million race looks like a straight fight between Turf Star & Psychic Warrior. Turf Star who finished 3^rd in Hyderabad in a million race would corner all attention. But the systematic preparation of Pyschic Warrior tempts me give the verdict in favour of the latter.

Race 6: Masada, Legacy Dream & Amazing Skill are the 3 who have realistic chances in this race going by the distance factor. But I am impressed by Examplar who won in an exemplary fashion in his last start over a mile. The handicapper has penalized him 15 points for that win by 5 ½ lengths but I fancy that he has it in him to make a race of it despite carrying more weight and over longer distance. Age is not a factor in class 2 race.

Race 7:  Another race where winner picking is difficult.  Bazinga, Massive Dynamics & Indian Brahmos are in contention. All the 3 are closely matched with respect to fractions. My vote goes to Indian Brahmos since he has been waiting for a longer period. However Massive Dynamics has the best credentials..

Race 8: Another age group ace where several runners are closely matched. I am tempted to nominate Just Fabulous as my choice because he just missed it last start. But in my view the race is between What A Nice Man & Indian Fury. Last start winner What A Nice Man having an edge.

BEST OF LUCK.

Bangalore Selections 09/07/2016

Race 1: Twice failed favourite Roaring Thunder with a switch in jockey is in contention. But the low rating of 21 does not inspire confidence and may fail again as favourite. lightening Strikes who finishe 24 lenghts in arrears to the winner in his last start and a no hoper in this race. Similarly the front runnimg tactics of Nazailla does not cut much ice since available vidence suggests she finally finihes at the back end of the field. The one who catches our attention is Bharath Queen who has finished 3rd behind Star Cracker in one of her starts .

Race 2:  While all the attention will be focused on Shining Magic who goes into this with a massive switch in jockey and 18/10 in odds as compared to 60/1 with Naveen aboard, and Honour vying for attention with Blinkers on this time the one that appeals to me is Vicious Circle who satisfies all my handicapping theories like Bottom-up, beating younger horses in previous run etc and rated 43 (Pucca clas theory).

Race 3:  This race is a difficult one to decipher in that Rocket Man, Spiritual Act, Bolts Colt & Sea Dove are all in with a chance. But my vote goes to Rocket Man who has been under steady preparation in training tracks with some notable work outs (rare for Class V horses).

Race 4:  Shield Of Achilles has shown enough potential while skipping clear of the field in his last start and is considered a good type of youngster is my choice though I am little wary of Amber Crown who surprised many in his last start and may do so again.

Race 5:  Avant Garde   is the one I expect to score in this race eventhough there are some good horses like Thomas More & In The Sunrise in the fray.

Race 6:  I am passing over all the fillies in this race as I have evidence that fillies find it difficult agaisr colts and geldings in this type of races so Sateelite & Starlet are out of my selection. Among the geldings I suspect Auriga may need a race run this season before succeeding, Pentagram & Machiavellianism have got their form line blunted,the race could be between last start surpriser Shivalik  Star & Bold Command and my vote goes in favour of the former.

Race 7:  Torrorosso, who has been having eye catching trial tracks, may give a run for the money to the likes of Ashwa Ashoka, Hall Of Famer & Serena Ballerina..

Race 8:   Tactically retained in division 2 of the same class so that she has to tackle only a weaker set of horses, Babhuska is likely to give a quick double to owner, trainer & the rider.

All the best..